Experts flag collision risks as lunar traffic grows
“A growing crowd of probes and satellites around the Moon is raising collision-avoidance demands.”
Key points
- A growing crowd of probes and satellites around the Moon is raising collision-avoidance demands.
- Researchers urge shared tracking and standards, with new sensors planned to plug cislunar blind spots.
- Cooperation will be key as human and robotic missions surge.
As governments and private firms ramp up lunar exploration, researchers warn that avoiding close calls in Moon orbit could soon become a major operational challenge.
Studies cited by experts suggest that with just 50 spacecraft in stable lunar orbits, each vehicle might need about four avoidance manoeuvres per year. ISRO has reported steering Chandrayaan-2 three times in four years even when only a handful of craft were circling the Moon.
Tracking is difficult because Earth-based sensors struggle at cislunar distances and in lunar glare. To improve awareness, NASA coordinates operator ephemerides to spot conjunctions, while the US Air Force Research Laboratory plans to launch its Oracle sensor to a Lagrange point in 2027 to watch objects Earth can't see. The UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is examining coordination rules, though the Outer Space Treaty?s obligations remain broad.
With Artemis missions scheduled and more commercial landers en route, scientists say international data-sharing and norms are essential to keep lunar operations safe.
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