NDMA forecasts weak La Niña, drier and warmer winter ahead
“NDMA projects a weak La Niña this winter, with less rain and warmer temperatures across large parts of Pakistan.”
Key points
- NDMA projects a weak La Niña this winter, with less rain and warmer temperatures across large parts of Pakistan.
- Lower snowfall could weigh on glaciers and water supplies, while drought risks may rise in Sindh and Balochistan.
A weak La Niña is likely to set in during November and December and persist for three to four months, the National Disaster Management Authority said, warning of below-normal rainfall and higher-than-usual winter temperatures in most regions.
Tayyab Shah, NDMA Director for Risk Management, told reporters that winter precipitation would be limited mainly to northern areas, while central regions including Punjab, KP and Kashmir could see reduced rainfall. Punjab may experience near-normal temperatures, but northern, southern and western belts are expected to run warmer than average.
He cautioned that snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral and upper KP may be 5–7% lower than normal—potentially affecting glacier health and summer water availability. Drier conditions in Sindh and Balochistan could tilt towards drought if the pattern persists.
The outlook aligns with recent guidance from the Pakistan Meteorological Department, which dismissed viral claims of an exceptionally harsh winter. Experts say La Niña stems from unusually cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures that alter global circulation and seasonal weather.
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