Swat basin projected to warm by over 5°C by 2100

A climate-risk assessment has projected that temperatures in Pakistan’s Swat watershed could rise by more than 5°C by the end of this century, with the strongest warming expected between October and June. The findings indicate growing risks for water supplies, agriculture, infrastructure and communities dependent on the glacier-fed basin.

The assessment was conducted under the Green Climate Fund-supported Glaciers to Farms programme, with the Asian Development Bank serving as its accredited entity. It projects little overall change in winter rainfall but warns that summer precipitation could more than double under some climate scenarios, potentially increasing the frequency and severity of floods, erosion and debris flows.

Rising temperatures are expected to produce a temporary increase in runoff as glaciers and snow melt more rapidly. That additional water would not represent a permanent gain: the assessment anticipates a longer-term decline in supply as glaciers retreat and their contribution to rivers diminishes, while hotter summers simultaneously increase water demand.

The analysis used around 40 years of weather records to examine temperature, rainfall and snowfall across mountainous and lower-elevation areas. Historical observations were used to adjust global climate models for local conditions, while projections were prepared for 2035, 2055, 2085 and 2100. The modelling considered changes affecting glaciers, seasonal snow and permafrost.

Melting glaciers and permafrost can destabilise mountain slopes and natural dams, increasing the danger of rockfalls, ice avalanches, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods. Such events can travel downstream and threaten homes, roads, irrigation networks and other infrastructure. Rapid spring melting following heavier precipitation could further raise the risk of flash floods and soil erosion.

Swat is one of four pilot watersheds assessed through the regional initiative, alongside the Kura, Naryn and Pyanj basins. These locations were chosen to represent different glacier and hydrological conditions across Central and West Asia and to guide future climate-resilience planning in participating countries.

The Green Climate Fund’s official project record says the broader programme covers nine countries and is designed to connect climate science with investment in water management, agriculture and resilient infrastructure. The project has an estimated total value of $3.5 billion, including $250 million in financing from the fund, and is scheduled to operate until 2036. The project details are available at https://www.greenclimate.fund/portfolio/projects/fp283.

For communities in and downstream from Swat, the findings point to two connected challenges: managing stronger flood and erosion hazards during periods of accelerated melting, and preparing for reduced glacier-fed water availability over the longer term. The assessment says resilience measures can reduce these risks, particularly when watershed management, early-warning capacity and infrastructure planning reflect changing climate conditions.