Pakistan’s Central Asia Trade Slows as Afghan Route Closes

Pakistan’s trade with Central Asian states has come under renewed pressure, with official trade figures showing a sharp contraction in commerce during the first 10 months of the 2025-26 fiscal year. The slowdown has been linked mainly to disruption on the Afghanistan land corridor, a route long used by Pakistani exporters and regional importers moving goods between South and Central Asia.

According to the reported figures, Pakistan’s exports to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan fell by 8.62% during July-April FY26. Export earnings from the five-country bloc declined to $147.992 million from $161.943 million in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

The import side showed an even steeper decline. Pakistan’s imports from the Central Asian region plunged by 87.96% to $20.882 million in the same 10-month period, compared with $173.383 million a year earlier. The sharp fall indicates that route uncertainty has affected both outbound Pakistani shipments and inbound regional supplies.

The figures show that the closure of the Afghan route has disrupted a commercial channel that previously supported annual trade worth roughly $400 million to $500 million. Pakistan has begun routing some exports through Iran, but the longer distance and added logistics burden have kept volumes limited and prevented the alternate route from fully replacing the Afghan corridor.

Uzbekistan remained the strongest positive exception in the data. Pakistan’s exports to Uzbekistan rose by 38.27% to $64.139 million, compared with $46.385 million a year earlier, while imports from Uzbekistan fell to $10.756 million from $70.918 million. The relative strength in exports comes as Uzbekistan has already put its transit trade agreement with Pakistan into operation.

Trade with other Central Asian economies weakened more visibly. Exports to Kazakhstan, the second-largest destination in the group, fell by 17.57% to $70.373 million, while imports from Kazakhstan dropped to just $0.924 million from $73.097 million. Exports to Tajikistan also slipped sharply, falling 63.22% to $9.332 million, while imports from the country declined nearly 80%.

The contraction matters because Islamabad has repeatedly described Central Asia as a priority market for regional connectivity, transit trade and export diversification. Pakistan’s ports, road networks and planned trade corridors have been promoted as a bridge for landlocked Central Asian economies, but the latest numbers show how vulnerable that strategy remains when overland routes are blocked or politically uncertain.

For Pakistan’s economy, weaker regional trade adds pressure at a time when the country is seeking fresh export growth, foreign exchange stability and broader market access. Lower exports to nearby markets reduce opportunities for transporters, manufacturers and traders, while disrupted imports can also weaken supply chains that depend on regional movement of goods.

The next challenge for policymakers will be to restore reliable connectivity while expanding alternative corridors that can handle commercial volumes at competitive cost. Without a stable route through Afghanistan or a more efficient replacement, Pakistan’s ambition to become a trade gateway for Central Asia may continue to face repeated setbacks.