Reko Diq Production Could Be Delayed Until 2030

Production at Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper and gold project could be delayed by approximately two years, shifting its possible start from the end of 2028 to 2030. Government and industry sources have linked the potential postponement to security conditions in Balochistan and wider instability affecting the region, although the project operator has not formally announced a revised production date.

Full-scale development could resume by the middle of 2027 after completion of an ongoing review covering security, capital requirements, financing, project scope and the construction schedule. Development activity has slowed during this assessment, but the project remains under active management and work at the site has not been completely suspended.

Approximately 700 permanent employees and 2,000 contractual workers have reportedly been retained despite the reduced pace of development. Research, administrative operations and community programmes are continuing, while some contracts involving outside service providers have been allowed to expire.

Barrick Mining previously confirmed that it had extended its review until mid-2027 because of increased security risks in Pakistan and the surrounding region. The company said it continued to believe in Reko Diq’s long-term value but warned that the slower development programme could significantly affect the previously disclosed budget and timeline.

The possibility of a 2030 production start has not yet been confirmed by the company or its government partners. Barrick’s chairman is expected to visit Pakistan during November for the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum in Islamabad, where the project’s status, financing and future development schedule are likely to attract close attention.

Industry estimates of the potential financial impact vary sharply. One assessment suggested that prolonged disruption could add several billion dollars to the project’s cost, while another source connected with the mining sector considered that estimate excessive and projected a more limited increase of roughly 10 per cent. Neither calculation has been officially endorsed.

The estimated investment required for the first phase has already increased from approximately $4 billion to between $5.6 billion and $6 billion. A further $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion could be required for the second phase, bringing total planned capital expenditure close to $9 billion before accounting for any additional costs caused by delays.

Barrick owns half of the project, while the remaining stake is divided between the Balochistan government and three Pakistani state-owned companies: Pakistan Petroleum Limited, Oil and Gas Development Company Limited and Government Holdings Private Limited. The ownership structure makes the project strategically important for both federal and provincial authorities.

Reko Diq is designed as a large open-pit operation producing copper-gold concentrate. Its initial processing capacity is planned at 45 million tonnes of ore annually, rising to 90 million tonnes during the second phase. The mine is expected to generate thousands of construction jobs and around 4,000 permanent positions once operational.

Any prolonged delay would postpone export earnings, employment and government revenue while increasing financing and construction risks. The outcome of the continuing review, improvements in regional security and the project partners’ ability to manage rising costs will determine whether development can accelerate during 2027 or production moves closer to 2030.