Pakistan begins up to 3-hour loadshedding amid power shortfall

Pakistan has begun implementing limited power loadshedding as the government tries to contain an electricity supply gap driven by weaker hydropower output and lower fuel availability for gas-fired plants. The move, reported on Monday, marks a fresh setback for consumers who had hoped the country had moved beyond routine outages, especially as demand starts to rise and the broader energy market remains under stress.

According to officials cited in the report, the current generation shortfall is estimated at roughly 2,000 to 2,500 megawatts. The government’s response is to impose outages of up to three hours, with the average interruption reported at around 2.25 hours and mostly concentrated at night. Authorities say the decision is not linked to a lack of installed generation capacity, but to the high cost and limited availability of the fuels needed to run the system efficiently during peak periods.

The immediate pressure is coming from two directions. First, hydropower generation has fallen because water releases from reservoirs remain below the levels needed for stronger output. Second, RLNG-fired plants are operating with reduced supplies, cutting the contribution of some of the country’s most important thermal stations. Officials say the aim of the current load management plan is to avoid wider use of expensive furnace oil and to prevent an even heavier financial burden from being passed on to electricity consumers through fuel cost adjustments.

A high-level committee led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has reportedly been kept informed as it monitors the country’s energy situation. Officials involved in the matter say the government is trying to balance two competing pressures: maintaining electricity supply during difficult operating conditions and limiting the use of costly fuel that would raise tariffs further. In practical terms, the state appears to have chosen controlled outages over a larger spike in generation costs that could later show up in consumer bills.

Data from the water sector underlines the problem. WAPDA figures showed relatively modest outflows from Tarbela and Mangla, while reservoir levels remain well below conservation capacity. At Tarbela, live storage was reported at 1.526 million acre-feet, while Mangla held 1.989 million acre-feet. Officials say hydropower output has also been affected because provinces have not placed sufficient water indents during a period of rain and crop harvesting, leaving less room for the power system to depend on cheaper water-based generation at a critical time.

Thermal generation has become more difficult as well. Furnace oil prices have surged sharply, rising from around Rs200,000 per ton in February to nearly Rs400,000 per ton before the recently announced two-week ceasefire. At the same time, gas availability for RLNG-based plants has dropped far below requirement. The power sector’s RLNG demand was put at around 300 MMCFD in mid-March, but current supply has fallen to nearly 80 MMCFD against demand that has since climbed to about 350 MMCFD. That mismatch has severely reduced generation from efficient plants located close to major load centres.

The strain is especially significant because Pakistan built major RLNG-based combined-cycle plants between 2015 and 2018 precisely to strengthen supply and reduce blackouts. These include the Bhikki plant in Sheikhupura, the Haveli Bahadur Shah plant in Jhang and the Balloki plant in Kasur, together representing more than 3,600MW of capacity. With gas volumes restricted, those assets are no longer able to operate at the level needed to compensate for weaker hydropower, exposing how vulnerable the system remains to fuel allocation and supply-chain stress.

Consumers are likely to feel the impact in more than one way. Beyond the inconvenience of outages, officials expect a positive fuel charges adjustment of more than Rs2 per unit for March 2026, driven largely by greater reliance on expensive fuels and reduced RLNG-based generation. That means households and businesses may face both interrupted supply and higher bills, a combination that carries economic consequences for industry, trade, daily wage work and household budgeting.

The situation also shows how closely Pakistan’s power sector is tied to wider economic and geopolitical shocks. Lower water releases, reduced gas availability and higher furnace-oil prices are converging at the same time that the country remains sensitive to regional energy disruptions. For policymakers, this is no longer just a technical dispatch issue. It is a reminder that energy planning, fuel procurement, storage policy and tariff management all remain tightly linked, and weakness in one area quickly spills into the rest of the system.

What happens next will depend on whether reservoir conditions improve, gas allocations to RLNG plants increase and fuel costs stabilise in the coming weeks. If those pressures ease, the current outages may remain limited and temporary. If they persist, however, Pakistan could face a tougher summer marked by longer load management, rising consumer frustration and renewed scrutiny of an energy system that still struggles to shield the public from shocks in water, fuel and global markets.