Pakistan diverts gas as LNG shortage threatens tariffs and outages
Pakistan moved on Monday to contain a worsening summer power risk as officials prepared to sharply increase domestic gas supplies to the electricity sector in response to an imported LNG shortfall. The plan, now under urgent discussion in Islamabad, aims to keep electricity costs from climbing further and to reduce the danger of extended outages as temperatures rise and demand accelerates.
According to officials familiar with the matter, gas deliveries to power plants are expected to rise from roughly 85 to 90 million cubic feet per day to about 160 to 170 mmcfd by the end of April or in the opening days of May. Part of that increase could come from diverting an additional 20 to 25 mmcfd from the CNG sector, while other options under review include shifting supply priorities across residential and industrial users.
The policy debate reflects the difficult balancing act facing the government. On one side are households already struggling with inflation and energy expenses. On the other are electricity consumers, businesses and factories that could face steeper tariffs or longer blackouts if relatively efficient gas-fired generation cannot be sustained. Officials have discussed whether the political cost of reducing gas to domestic users could be outweighed by the wider fallout from a broader power crisis.
Power Minister Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari reportedly warned policymakers that without more gas for electricity generation, fuel costs in power tariffs could rise sharply and loadshedding could intensify. His ministry is said to have presented diversion options from households, CNG and fertiliser, while other ministers raised concerns over the public backlash that could follow any major cut in residential gas supply. The debate has now moved into a higher-level coordination framework as authorities try to prevent a full-scale supply shock.
The economics behind the urgency are stark. Without RLNG, around 5,000 megawatts of relatively efficient plants in Punjab become either underused or much more expensive to run on alternate fuels such as diesel. Officials estimate the fuel cost gap between RLNG and high-speed diesel can stretch from roughly Rs20-21 to as much as Rs50-54 per unit, while generation on furnace oil also carries a heavy price burden. That means every delay in securing an affordable replacement raises the likelihood that consumers will ultimately pay more.
The government has already started limited loadshedding in recent days, and officials expect the pressure to rise further at night when solar generation falls away and demand on the grid picks up. Conservation measures are also being folded into the response, including early market closures under what authorities describe as hybrid load management. Even though furnace oil stocks are said to be available for more than a month of full requirement, relying on that fuel on a large scale would still come at a substantial financial cost.
At the same time, the administration is trying to protect fertiliser availability because disruptions there could spill into agriculture and food prices. Officials are reportedly wary of a large gap between locally produced urea and imported stocks, a difference that can encourage hoarding and smuggling. For that reason, fertiliser plants may continue receiving gas, though not necessarily on an uninterrupted basis, with alternate operations being considered to balance power needs against farm-sector demand.
The wider backdrop is Pakistan’s recurring struggle with energy vulnerability. Imported LNG has become an important part of the country’s power planning, but external supply disruptions and price shocks repeatedly expose the limits of that model. Hydropower is not yet in a position to fully ease the burden either, as operational delays at Tarbela’s tunnels persist and the 969MW Neelum-Jhelum plant remains out of service. That leaves the government trying to bridge a seasonal demand surge with a mix of costly fuels, constrained infrastructure and politically difficult trade-offs.
For households and businesses, the outcome matters immediately. If the gas diversion plan works, authorities may be able to soften the blow of summer demand and limit the rise in electricity costs. If it falls short, Pakistan could face a combination of higher fuel cost adjustments, longer scheduled outages and deeper strain on industry at a moment when economic recovery remains fragile. By the government’s own calculations, average daily loadshedding of two to three hours may still be hard to avoid.
The next two to three weeks will now be critical. Officials are banking on additional domestic flows, including infrastructure improvements that have increased the movement of gas from the Bettani field toward Punjab, to stabilise the system before demand peaks. Whether that effort succeeds will determine not only how severe this summer’s power crunch becomes, but also how urgently Pakistan is forced to rethink the structure of its energy mix and its dependence on imported fuel.