PMD Warns Pakistan of Hotter, Drier Summer and Flood Risks

Pakistan is likely to face a hotter and mostly drier summer from June to August, as the Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned of above-normal temperatures and reduced rainfall across large parts of the country. The seasonal outlook points to a difficult period for farmers, water managers, city administrations and disaster-response authorities.

The forecast is linked to strengthening El Niño conditions, which can influence rainfall patterns, heat intensity and seasonal weather behaviour across the region. The department’s assessment, based on multiple global climate prediction models, indicates that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation has moved into a positive phase and may intensify during the summer season.

Most parts of Pakistan are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during the June-August period, with north-eastern Punjab facing the possibility of a sharper rainfall deficit. Northern areas, including Gilgit-Baltistan, parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir, are expected to receive near-normal to slightly above-normal precipitation.

In its seasonal outlook, the meteorological department also signalled that the Indian Ocean Dipole, currently neutral, may turn positive by July. Officials warned that higher temperatures will remain a countrywide concern throughout the season, increasing stress on crops, water supplies, livestock and vulnerable populations exposed to prolonged heat.

The agricultural impact could be significant because the forecast period overlaps with Kharif sowing and early crop development. Lower rainfall may weaken rain-fed agriculture, while hotter conditions can increase irrigation demand and create a favourable environment for pests and crop diseases, raising the risk of lower yields and quality losses.

There is also a mixed water outlook. More rain in upper catchment areas may help improve reservoir levels and support agriculture and hydropower generation, but the same weather pattern can create danger in mountainous regions. Heavy downpours in northern and hilly areas may trigger flash floods, landslides and sudden surges in rivers and streams.

Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir face added concern because high temperatures can accelerate snowmelt and raise the risk of glacial lake outburst floods. These hazards can damage roads, bridges, homes and local infrastructure, while also cutting off communities in remote valleys during extreme weather events.

Urban centres are not free from risk either. Episodes of heavy rain, even during a broadly dry season, could cause flooding in low-lying neighbourhoods of major cities in Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Dust storms, strong winds and hailstorms may also disrupt transport, reduce visibility and damage crops and infrastructure.

Pakistan has repeatedly seen how heat, erratic rain and weak urban drainage can turn seasonal weather into a public emergency. The latest forecast gives provincial governments, farmers and disaster-management bodies a narrow window to prepare crop protection plans, monitor water demand and strengthen early-warning systems before extreme summer conditions deepen.