Why Hamas bet on Trump’s Gaza deal to free hostages

Palestinian officials say Hamas took a calculated risk by agreeing to release its remaining hostages under a Trump-brokered ceasefire even without a firm Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza. The decision, they said, flowed from a belief that Washington would remain invested enough to deter Israel from resuming a major offensive once the captives are freed.

A pivotal moment came last month when President Trump mediated tensions after an Israeli strike in Doha, according to the officials. By engaging Qatar directly and confronting Israel over the incident, Trump convinced Hamas negotiators that he would enforce the contours of any truce he announced. That perception, they added, was reinforced by his personal involvement in earlier regional crises and public pressure on all parties to stand down.

The ceasefire’s first phase covers a halt in hostilities and a staggered hostage release, with later steps tied to troop repositioning and broader political talks. Hamas leaders acknowledge the gamble: once the hostages are returned, their leverage diminishes and Israel could be tempted to resume heavy operations if provocations occur. Sources involved in the talks said the group accepted this risk in exchange for U.S. guarantees and the presence of high-level mediators from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey at negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh.

U.S. envoys and Trump confidants shuttled between rooms to keep the process on track, while regional actors pressed both sides toward incremental steps. Analysts cautioned that the framework’s success depends on sustained enforcement, humanitarian access and progress toward the later phases of Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan. Without that momentum, opponents on each side could argue for a return to force.

For now, Hamas figures say they are banking on the White House’s desire for a visible diplomatic win and on international stakeholders who do not want another breakdown. The memory of previous ceasefires that collapsed looms large, but mediators believe the political incentives are stronger this time—provided all sides resist provocations and stick to the timetable.