Ahsan Iqbal Warns Pakistan Population Crisis May Become Social Bomb

Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal has warned that Pakistan’s rapid population increase could turn into a serious national crisis if urgent reforms are not introduced. His remarks were made in Islamabad during the launch of the National and Provincial Population Projections 2023-2050, a new assessment outlining the country’s demographic outlook.

The report presents a stark picture of Pakistan’s future population burden. It estimates that the country’s population, recorded at 241.5 million in 2023, could rise to 389.9 million by 2050 if fertility rates decline slowly, while even a faster decline scenario would still take the figure to 371.9 million.

Officials said the projections show that Pakistan is entering a decisive period in which demographic pressure will directly affect education, health, jobs, housing, food security and public finances. The figures also suggest that the number of children under 18 could increase from 117.9 million to 139.7 million by mid-century, creating major demand for schools and social services.

Ahsan Iqbal said the country could lose its chance of turning its population into a productive national asset if education and skills development do not keep pace with growth. He cautioned that the present trend risks producing a large untrained workforce instead of a skilled generation capable of supporting economic progress.

The minister also proposed that provinces should be encouraged through fiscal incentives to manage population growth more effectively. He pointed to the National Finance Commission framework, under which population remains a major factor in resource distribution, and argued that provinces making measurable progress should receive recognition and policy support.

The projections indicate that Pakistan’s working-age population could expand sharply from 135.2 million to 255.4 million by 2050. While this could create a demographic dividend, experts warn that the benefit will only materialise if the state invests heavily in quality education, healthcare, vocational training and job creation.

The youth segment is also expected to grow significantly, with people aged 15 to 29 projected to rise from 62.95 million to 99.76 million by 2050. At the same time, the elderly population may increase from 8.6 million to 22.6 million, raising future concerns about healthcare, pensions and social protection.

Pakistan has long struggled to align population policy with development planning. Repeated warnings from economists, demographers and social-sector experts have highlighted the gap between population growth and the government’s capacity to provide basic services, especially in rural and low-income urban areas.

The impact of these projections is likely to be felt across the economy and society. Without serious intervention, rising numbers could intensify unemployment, deepen poverty, widen education gaps and increase pressure on already stretched public institutions.

The next phase will depend on whether federal and provincial governments translate the new projections into coordinated policy action. Population management, women’s education, family health services and youth employment are expected to become central issues as Pakistan prepares for the demographic challenges of the coming decades.